One offseason removed from an NLCS appearance, the New York Mets find themselves in a unique spot headed into the 2025 season. This offseason was highlighted by the unprecedented Juan Soto contract, making the 26 year old outfielder the beneficiary of the largest contract in the history of professional sports. 15 years at 765 million dollars is staggering enough to largely bury another important lede from this offseason—despite strength in other areas, the Mets have a starting pitching problem.
This week saw two Met starters go down with torso injuries. New addition Frankie Montas suffered a high-grade lat strain, sidelining him until mid-to-late April in the best case scenario. Sean Manaea has an oblique strain and figures to miss the start of the season as well, with the typical ambiguous timeline for recovery attached. In other words, don’t hold your breath until May.
Headed into the season, the Mets rotation figures to be:
- Kodai Senga (30 career starts in two years)
- David Peterson (just over a 2:1 career K/BB ratio, one full starting season)
- Clay Holmes (Four (!!!!) career starts)
- Paul Blackburn (86 ERA+ over last four seasons)
- Tylor Megill (never had a 1 WAR season or ERA+ > 100)
- Griffin Canning (coming off career worst 80 ERA+, 94 career starts)
Admittedly, my eye is not trained in the same way as those in the Mets front office, and there are some things to like about the staff. Barring any setbacks, the rotation figures to be pretty deep when Manaea and Montas return. The added value of Montas’ return remains to be seen, though, as he has been pretty ineffective as a starter since being dealt from Oakland to the Yankees a couple years ago. Farm hands such as Brandon Sproat and Max Kranick could also factor into the 2025 pitching plans, although likely not until later in the year.
I like the bullpen. Personally, I’d carry these seven into the season:
Edwin Diaz (RHP)
Ryne Stanek (RHP)
Jose Butto (RHP)
AJ Minter (LHP)
Reed Garrett (RHP)
Dedniel Nunez (RHP)
Danny Young (LHP)
Diaz, Stanek, and Minter all have track records proving their efficacy. Garrett was brilliant at his best. Nunez was great on all accounts before his injury. Jose Butto definitely had a good 2024 on balance, but can feel like a shaky option at times. Young probably has his left-handedness to thank for his status as a Major Leaguer, but looked decent at times last year and could be serviceable in lower-leverage spots, likely along with Butto and Garrett.
The position players are an upgraded group from last year. Here is how I would go about a lineup and bench.
*/** possible platoons
- Francisco Lindor SS
- Juan Soto RF
- Brandon Nimmo LF
- Pete Alonso 1B
- Mark Vientos 3B
- Jesse Winker** DH
- Francisco Alvarez C
- Jeff McNeil 2B
- Jose Siri* CF
Bench:
Tyrone Taylor* OF
Brett Baty IF
Starling Marte** OF
Luis Torrens C
The lineup speaks for itself. 1-7 could be hellacious on any given day. Even in the absence of any production from guys on the fringe (Ronny Mauricio, Baty, Luisangel Acuña, Alexander Canario), and a possibly anemic 8-9 (boohoo), this lineup should wear down opposing pitching. It, however, is not without its questions.
- Vientos needs to maintain 2024 production, or close to it
- Can Alvarez develop a consistent and disciplined plate approach?
- How does 8-9 in the order look by mid-year? Years end?
- Are the strange 2024 campaigns from Alonso and Nimmo a cause for concern?
Mark Vientos might have been the most fun Met, sans-Candelita, of last season. He hit two walk-off home runs, had an electrifying postseason, and posted what would have been great numbers if he played 162 in just 111 games. Can that production be sustained? If so, look out.
How about Francisco Alvarez? We all love Alvy. He is such a fun youthful presence in the clubhouse. To say I want this guy to become a superstar is an understatement. He has the raw ability to be. Can he keep a balanced approach and make consistent contact? Again, if so, watch out. Consistent contact mixes very well with the pop his bat possesses.
If McNeil’s decline continues, there is a good chance one of Mauricio or Acuña can contribute to the big club in a big way. If the oft-famished nature of Jose Siri’s bat outweighs the sheer joy of watching him on a baseball field, the recently acquired Canario, Tyrone Taylor, or Starling Marte all provide viable replacement options. Again, the word of the year this season is depth. 8-9 will play the hot bat and upside this season.
Is Pete Alonso not an X-Factor? He surely is for himself and the trajectory of his own career. That trajectory is believed by many to be downward. He wants to prove that wrong, but the Mets know what they are getting from Pete this year. He will hit a bunch of home runs, post a WAR around three, and probably end up in a similar situation to the one he was in this past offseason, especially with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. solidifying himself as the top free agent ahead of 2026.
Brandon Nimmo had a very strange 2024. Despite a departure from his on-base wizardry, he found himself squarely in the middle of Mets run production all year long, posting a career-high in runs batted in (90) and a career-consistent number of walks. I won’t worry what version of Nimmo we get until one of the versions is not an awesome baseball player.
The New York Mets head into the 2025 season with a revamped roster, highlighted by the historic Juan Soto contract and a potent lineup. While the offensive depth is impressive, questions linger. The Mets’ rotation remains unproven. The Amazin’ lineup will need potency, and the bullpen to be watertight. Ultimately, the Mets’ depth will be tested, but the pool of potentially impactful players is substantial. I think they ought to be up to the task.